What determines if a disease will spread like wild fire? The rate of transmission

What determines if a disease will spread like wild fire, is how many patients does one individual infect.

News 12 Staff

Apr 28, 2020, 2:29 PM

Updated 1,485 days ago

Share:

COVID-19 is thought to spread mainly through close contact from person-to-person in respiratory droplets from someone who is infected, and showing symptoms of the illness. However, some people without symptoms may be able to spread the virus.
What determines if a disease will spread like wild fire, is how many patients does one individual infect.
According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, how easily a virus spreads from person-to-person can vary.
Information from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic suggests that the virus is spreading more efficiently than influenza.
The University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy says a recent study that focused on the first 425 cases in China suggested that the virus has a basic reproductive value of 2.2, meaning that each patient could spread the virus to about two other people. These results, however, were preliminary. Factors like quarantines and stay-at-home orders influence the spread of a disease.
"If it is one, where one person infects only one additional person or less, then the disease is usually stable. However, if one person infects two people, and each of those two people infects another two people, it becomes logarithmic, and it just takes off," says Dr. Adam Singer, the vice chairman for research in the Department of Emergency Medicine at Stony Brook University Hospital.
Dr. Singer says that the way to keep infections low, is to practice social distancing and wear masks.
According to Gov. Andrew Cuomo, in New York, after over a month of stay-at-home orders, the current statewide figure is 0.8, meaning 10 positive people are infecting about eight others.
Gov. Cuomo says to keep coronavirus cases low, the transmission rate should not go over 1.2.
undefined
 


More from News 12
0:22
Yorktown police: 2 missing Westchester teens located

Yorktown police: 2 missing Westchester teens located

2:25
STORM WATCH: Severe thunderstorms with hail possible Thursday before beautiful conditions on Friday

STORM WATCH: Severe thunderstorms with hail possible Thursday before beautiful conditions on Friday

1:56
Realtors association speaks out against Mount Vernon real estate transfer tax hike

Realtors association speaks out against Mount Vernon real estate transfer tax hike

1:40
Officials: Dozens of suspects rounded up in raids as part of ‘largest gun trafficking case’ in Orange County history

Officials: Dozens of suspects rounded up in raids as part of ‘largest gun trafficking case’ in Orange County history

2:36
Meet the majority owner of Westchester Soccer Club, the county's new USL team

Meet the majority owner of Westchester Soccer Club, the county's new USL team

0:37
ArtsWestchester names long-time official as its CEO

ArtsWestchester names long-time official as its CEO

2:31
Questions over affordable housing in Mamaroneck at center of community meeting

Questions over affordable housing in Mamaroneck at center of community meeting

0:40
​​City of Yonkers receives designation as WWII Heritage City

​​City of Yonkers receives designation as WWII Heritage City

1:45
Rockland school district's $331M budget fails to pass by nearly 400 votes

Rockland school district's $331M budget fails to pass by nearly 400 votes

1:41
Mount Vernon catches up on inspections of community public spaces

Mount Vernon catches up on inspections of community public spaces

0:56
Mount Vernon native Sean 'Diddy' Combs faces another sexual assault lawsuit

Mount Vernon native Sean 'Diddy' Combs faces another sexual assault lawsuit

1:40
Newburgh school district leaders face difficult choices after voters reject budget

Newburgh school district leaders face difficult choices after voters reject budget

RESULTS: News 12 Westchester/Hudson Valley School Vote 2024

RESULTS: News 12 Westchester/Hudson Valley School Vote 2024

0:40
Police: Minisink school bus aide charged with sexual abuse of 8-year-old girl

Police: Minisink school bus aide charged with sexual abuse of 8-year-old girl

0:33
Hudson Valley Dodge manager killed in incident at dealership

Hudson Valley Dodge manager killed in incident at dealership

2:45
Chappaqua, East Ramapo, and Newburgh reject school budgets; Clarkstown OKs 4% increase for schools

Chappaqua, East Ramapo, and Newburgh reject school budgets; Clarkstown OKs 4% increase for schools

0:22
Poughkeepsie man arrested on drug charges, accused of selling cocaine

Poughkeepsie man arrested on drug charges, accused of selling cocaine

0:40
Ramapo incident reports list tickets, charges against Monsey bus drivers who struck kids

Ramapo incident reports list tickets, charges against Monsey bus drivers who struck kids

1:10
Headlines: Woman steals $97,000 from business, health insurance fraud, Stony Point home invasion

Headlines: Woman steals $97,000 from business, health insurance fraud, Stony Point home invasion