Without
coming right out and saying it, President Joe Biden seems ready to let lapse a
May 1 deadline for completing a withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan.
Orderly withdrawals take time, and Biden is running out of it.
Biden has inched so close to the deadline that his indecision amounts almost to
a decision to put off, at least for a number of months, a pullout of the
remaining 2,500 troops and continue supporting the Afghan military at the risk
of a Taliban backlash. Removing all of the troops and their equipment in the
next three weeks - along with coalition partners who can't get out on their own
- would be difficult logistically, as Biden himself suggested in late March.
“It’s going to be hard to meet the May 1 deadline,” he said. “Just in terms of
tactical reasons, it’s hard to get those troops out.” Tellingly, he added, “And
if we leave, we’re going to do so in a safe and orderly way.”
James Stavidis, a retired Navy admiral who served as NATO's top commander from
2009 to 2013, says it would be unwise at this point to get out quickly.
“Sometimes not making a decision becomes a decision, which seems the case with
the May 1 deadline,” Stavidis said in an email exchange Wednesday. “The most
prudent course of action feels like a six-month extension and an attempt to get
the Taliban truly meeting their promises - essentially permitting a legitimate
‘conditions based’ withdrawal in the fall.”
There are crosscurrents of pressure on Biden. On the one hand, he has argued
for years, including during his time as vice president, when President Barack
Obama ordered a huge buildup of U.S. forces, that Afghanistan is better handled
as a smaller-scale counterterrorism mission. Countering Russia and China has
since emerged as a higher priority.
On the other hand, current and former military officers have argued that
leaving now, with the Taliban in a position of relative strength and the Afghan
government in a fragile state, would risk losing what has been gained in 20
years of fighting.
"A withdrawal would not only leave America more vulnerable to terrorist
threats; it would also have catastrophic effects in Afghanistan and the region
that would not be in the interest of any of the key actors, including the
Taliban,” a bipartisan experts group known as the Afghan Study Group concluded
in a February report. The group, whose co-chair, retired Gen. Joseph Dunford,
is a former commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan and former chairman of the
Joint Chiefs, recommended Biden extend the deadline beyond May, preferably with
some sort of agreement by the Taliban.
If the troops stay, Afghanistan will become Biden’s war. His decisions, now and
in coming months, could determine the legacy of a 2001 U.S. invasion that was
designed as a response to al-Qaida’s Sept. 11 attacks, for which the extremist
group led by Osama bin Laden used Afghanistan as a haven.
Biden said during the 2020 campaign that if elected he might keep a
counterterrorism force in Afghanistan but also would “end the war responsibly”
to ensure U.S. forces never have to return. The peace talks that began last
fall between the Taliban and the Afghan government are seen as the best hope,
but they have produced little so far.
Postponing the U.S. withdrawal carries the risk of the Taliban resuming attacks
on U.S. and coalition forces, possibly escalating the war. In a February 2020
agreement with the administration of President Donald Trump, the Taliban agreed
to halt such attacks and hold peace talks with the Afghan government, in
exchange for a U.S. commitment to a complete withdrawal by May 2021.
When he entered the White House in January, Biden knew of the looming deadline
and had time to meet it if he had chosen to do so. It became a steep logistical
hurdle only because he put off a decision in favor of consulting at length
inside his administration and with allies. Flying thousands of troops and their
equipment out of Afghanistan in the next three weeks under the potential threat
of Taliban resistance is not technically impossible, although it would appear
to violate Biden's promise not to rush.
Biden undertook a review of the February 2020 agreement shortly after taking
office, and as recently as Tuesday aides said he was still contemplating a way
ahead in Afghanistan. White House press secretary Jen Psaki stressed that May 1
was a deadline set by the prior administration and that a decision was
complicated.
“But it’s also an important decision - one he needs to make in close
consultation with our allies and also with our national security team here in
this administration,” Psaki said. “And we want to give him the time to do
that.”
In briefings on Afghanistan, Biden would have heard from military commanders
such as Gen. Frank McKenzie, head of U.S. Central Command, who have said
publicly and repeatedly that the Taliban have not fully lived up to the
commitments they made in the February 2020 agreement. McKenzie and others have
said violence levels are too high for a durable political settlement to be
made.
Congress has been cautious about reducing the U.S. military presence in
Afghanistan. Last year it expressly forbade the Pentagon from using funds to
reduce below 4,000 troops, but the Pentagon went ahead anyway after Trump
ordered a reduction to 2,500 after he lost the election. Trump got around the
legal prohibition by signing a waiver.
By
ROBERT BURNS, the Associated Press.