snowmakerALERT: The sureness of a significant snowfall continues to mount with new model guidance coming into the weather center. The first snowflakes begin to fall late Saturday night. Just before daybreak, snow will be accumulating at a fairly quick pace.

When significant storms are modeled by the computer guidance, more data is essential. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been doing reconnaissance missions, sampling the developing wave in the Pacific. This information will then be used in the coming model cycles.

This storm could turn out to be the biggest snowmaker New Jersey has seen in 10 years. The National Weather Service has issued winter storm watches for every neighborhood in the state beginning late Saturday night through early Monday morning. A watch is issued to alert you of the possibility of dangerous winter weather that could impact the area within 48 hours.

The opportunity for a foot or more of snow is possible for communities along and north of Interstate 80. I think with the information at our disposal right now, that would be our starting point. Meteorological concerns arise as the storm tracks further north and closer to the coast.

This will allow more of the ocean's influence to pump in "milder" air off the Atlantic into the column of air overhead, some 4,000 to 8,000 feet. Why is that significant? This setup allows for the precipitation to change from all snow to a wintry mix and, quite possibly, a more dangerous freezing rain mixture.

The wintry mix changeover diminishes the amount of snow that will collect in central areas of the state. From Interstate 78 south to Interstate 195, the issue is when the changeover will occur. If it happens sooner in the day, snow totals will be less. If it happens later, totals will be higher. There is major uncertainty in this area. We won't have a handle on that until late Saturday. So, I say plan for something more impactful. Err on the side of caution.

My forecast isn't to scare you. It's meant to help you prepare. The focus of the forecast shouldn't be on how much snow collects. It should be, "Are you prepared?" If you run out and brave the crowds at the grocery store, you'll have food, regardless. I would want you all to be prepared and safe rather than stuck and struggling. More weather updates with newer weather information will be posted here and on social media. I hope you are all well, healthy and staying safe. Be kind to each other.

~Dave