US economy to grow slower than Trump pledges, survey finds

<p>U.S. economic growth is expected to accelerate this year and next, yet remain modest, even if President Trump's promised tax cuts and infrastructure spending are implemented, a survey found.&nbsp;</p>

News 12 Staff

Mar 28, 2017, 8:17 PM

Updated 2,597 days ago

Share:

US economy to grow slower than Trump pledges, survey finds
U.S. economic growth is expected to accelerate this year and next, yet remain modest, even if President Trump's promised tax cuts and infrastructure spending are implemented, a survey found.
The economy will grow a solid 2.3 percent this year and 2.5 percent in 2018, according to 50 economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics. Those rates would be up from 2016's anemic pace of 1.6 percent.
Still, those rates are below the 3 percent to 4 percent growth that Trump has promised to bring about through steep corporate and individual tax cuts and more spending on roads, airports and tunnels. Most of the economists surveyed assume that a tax reform package will be approved by Congress this year. About two-fifths expect an infrastructure spending proposal to pass this year, while rest forecast it will happen in 2018 or beyond.
The survey also found that 70 percent of economists think financial markets are too optimistic about the impact of Trump's proposals, should they be enacted. The S&P 500 stock index has risen about 6.5 percent since the presidential election on anticipation of faster growth stemming from Trump's policies. Shares slipped last week as Congress and the Trump administration failed to agree on a health care proposal to replace the Obama administration's Affordable Care Act.
The economists surveyed work for companies, trade associations and in academia. The results were compiled by Timothy Gill, an economist at the American Iron and Steel Institute; Steve Cochrane, an economist at Moody's Analytics; and David Teolis at General Motors, among others.
The survey found economists more optimistic about hiring than they were in a previous survey, conducted in December. They now forecast employers will add an average of 183,000 jobs a month this year, up from their earlier forecast of 168,000. The new figure is roughly in line with last year's average of 187,000.
Most of the economists assume that Trump's tax proposals will pass in the second half of this year, though about one-fifth expect that it will take until next year.
Most do not expect an infrastructure package, even if it passes this year, to boost the economy until 2018, the survey found.
Trump's tax proposals will face many challenges before they become law. Most economists surveyed by NABE do not expect they will include a proposal from House Republicans to tax imports and exempt exports. That proposal is forecast to raise $1 trillion in revenue over a decade. Without it, the tax plan will need to raise other revenue or will make the government's budget deficit larger.


More from News 12
2:07
Fire officials: Fatal Ossining fire doesn't appear to be suspicious

Fire officials: Fatal Ossining fire doesn't appear to be suspicious

2:34
Storm Watch: Thunderstorms to impact morning commute, sun breaks out by noon

Storm Watch: Thunderstorms to impact morning commute, sun breaks out by noon

1:14
Headlines: Woman stabbed in White Plains, fatal crash on I-84, body of missing guardsman found

Headlines: Woman stabbed in White Plains, fatal crash on I-84, body of missing guardsman found

0:19
Rabies alert issued in Sullivan County after fox tests positive

Rabies alert issued in Sullivan County after fox tests positive

0:40
New York honors fallen police officers with memorial wall dedication

New York honors fallen police officers with memorial wall dedication

0:28
Trial of Wallkill man suspected of hiring someone to kill his neighbor begins today

Trial of Wallkill man suspected of hiring someone to kill his neighbor begins today

0:32
SUNY Purchase agrees to suspend disciplinary consequences for protester arrested during campus demonstrations

SUNY Purchase agrees to suspend disciplinary consequences for protester arrested during campus demonstrations

0:38
Local thrift store hits $4 million in charitable giving to Northern Westchester hospital

Local thrift store hits $4 million in charitable giving to Northern Westchester hospital

0:31
Orange County school districts poised to implement wards for school board elections

Orange County school districts poised to implement wards for school board elections

0:30
New Rochelle maintains current elementary school start times despite cost concerns

New Rochelle maintains current elementary school start times despite cost concerns

0:21
Small business owners recognized for contributions during Asian Pacific American Heritage Month

Small business owners recognized for contributions during Asian Pacific American Heritage Month

1:08
Sleepy Hollow music festival to debut with indie rock band Cold War Kids headlining

Sleepy Hollow music festival to debut with indie rock band Cold War Kids headlining

1:43
Garden Guide: These plants repel weeds and are a natural fertilizer!

Garden Guide: These plants repel weeds and are a natural fertilizer!

0:22
Trocheck's power-play goal lifts Rangers to 4-3 win over Hurricanes in 2OT for 2-0 series lead

Trocheck's power-play goal lifts Rangers to 4-3 win over Hurricanes in 2OT for 2-0 series lead

1:46
 21-year-old SUNY Purchase art student overcomes childhood trauma through music

21-year-old SUNY Purchase art student overcomes childhood trauma through music

1:08
Hospital workers picket over Westchester Medical Center Health Network layoffs

Hospital workers picket over Westchester Medical Center Health Network layoffs

0:57
5 puppies rescued from sealed shipping container on I-84 in Bedford

5 puppies rescued from sealed shipping container on I-84 in Bedford

1:42
Poughkeepsie council weighs opting into rent stabilization under Emergency Tenant Protection Act

Poughkeepsie council weighs opting into rent stabilization under Emergency Tenant Protection Act

1:58
Officials mull traffic safety projects following 5th child struck by car in 5 months in Rockland neighborhood

Officials mull traffic safety projects following 5th child struck by car in 5 months in Rockland neighborhood

2:46
8 tips for children walking or bicycling to school

8 tips for children walking or bicycling to school