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TRACKING ELSA: Remnants from Tropical Storm Elsa could could bring downpours to NY Friday

News 12 meteorologists say the storm could produce downpours for our area.

News 12 Staff

Jul 6, 2021, 2:28 PM

Updated 1,076 days ago

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Elsa weakened to a tropical storm as it threatened Florida's northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday after raking past the Tampa Bay region with gusty winds and heavy rain.
Forecasters said Elsa would slice across inland north Florida as a tropical storm with strong rains and wind, then move on to Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia before heading out in the Atlantic Ocean by Friday. Elsa's maximum sustained winds stood at 65 mph early Wednesday. Its core was about 50 miles south southwest of Cedar Key. It was moving north at 14 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
News 12 meteorologists are tracking the storm, and say Elsa is expected to move up the East Coast as a plume of tropical moisture that would produce periods of heavy tropical downpours with flooding possible. The region will turn drier Friday afternoon as Elsa pulls away. 
WHAT: Heavy rain, high tide coastal flooding, beach erosion, and breezy conditions are expected Thursday night into Friday as a two part weather system interacts. A cold front stalls near the tri-state area on Thursday and tropical moisture from Elsa converges with it offshore. Thunderstorms and downpours Thursday night will lead to more downpours and coastal impacts by Friday morning. Currently, Elsa looks to track within 100 miles of the New York City metropolitan area, which is close enough for notable impacts. 
Impacts are currently as follows:
RAINFALL: 1-3"
HIGH SURF: Close to 5 ft possible.. (TBD as time gets closer)
HIGH TIDE FLOODING.
  • MANASQUAN, NJ ~8PM THU & ~8AM FRI
  • BAY SHORE, LI ~10PM THU & ~10:30AM FRI
  • NYC ~8PM THU & ~9AM FRI
  • NORWALK (LI SOUND) ~11PM THU & ~NOON FRI
SWELLS (Offshore): 20 feet
WIND: 20 - 30 mph sustained possible. 20-30% chance for tropical storm force
BEACH EROSION: Expected.
WHEN: Thursday PM - Thunderstorms and scattered downpours. Tropical connection takes place and flooding is possible with rain. Friday AM - Possible downpours to continue, breezy, and widespread minor to moderate coastal impacts. Few major coastal impacts. 
WHERE: All areas of the tristate region.
UNCERTAINTY: Storm track is still everchanging. We are watching closely for the weather pieces to come together. The cold front from the northwest will stall - and this will be the "railroad tracks" or "roadway" for Elsa to traverse to the northeast. There is also an area of fair weather near Bermuda that is big enough to squeeze Elsa along the coast, preventing it from going too far out to sea. 


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